Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.019880 0.022545 0.025457 0.028879 0.032795 0.037142 0.042341
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015316 0.018833 0.023018 0.028381 0.035095 0.043251 0.053957
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.012903 0.016737 0.021566 0.028123 0.036845 0.048114 0.063887
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011211 0.015187 0.020428 0.027893 0.038330 0.052521 0.073479
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010234 0.014397 0.020111 0.028594 0.040992 0.058631 0.085961
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009156 0.013311 0.019215 0.028309 0.042125 0.062588 0.095673
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008601 0.012893 0.019197 0.029246 0.045083 0.069450 0.110487
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007658 0.011789 0.018032 0.028287 0.044978 0.071533 0.117897
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.006968 0.010999 0.017254 0.027827 0.045566 0.074705 0.127358
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006245 0.010082 0.016186 0.026771 0.045035 0.075925 0.133543
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006016 0.009944 0.016350 0.027763 0.048036 0.083390 0.151570
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005796 0.009795 0.016476 0.028686 0.050988 0.091037 0.170795
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005542 0.009576 0.016476 0.029415 0.053716 0.098665 0.191134
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005131 0.009046 0.015892 0.029036 0.054364 0.102511 0.204591
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004779 0.008590 0.015396 0.028761 0.055162 0.106695 0.219198
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004468 0.008181 0.014947 0.028526 0.056001 0.111021 0.234605
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004310 0.008044 0.014989 0.029244 0.058808 0.119601 0.260248
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004040 0.007669 0.014547 0.028952 0.059503 0.123852 0.276788
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003938 0.007613 0.014714 0.029911 0.062918 0.134249 0.308745
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003630 0.007122 0.013982 0.028929 0.062043 0.135161 0.318412
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003401 0.006775 0.013512 0.028458 0.062240 0.138475 0.334295
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003131 0.006322 0.012790 0.027377 0.060956 0.138255 0.341338
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003080 0.006322 0.013011 0.028393 0.064588 0.149922 0.380291